Australia – 3Q 2018 GDP
05/12/2018 04:47 pm MYT
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In 3Q 2018, Australia’s GDP, in seasonally adjusted volume terms, rose by 0.3%, quarter-on-quarter, and 2.8%, year-on-year – see figure 1. On the expenditure side, the GDP growth was mainly driven by final consumption, which contributed 0.2 ppts to the growth. On the trade side, imports contributed 0.3 ppts to GDP growth – see table 1. Year-on-year, the terms of trade in 3Q 2018 improved by 2.7%. Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted real net national disposable income increased by 2.9%.

Risks to global economic growth due to trade protectionism, especially from the US, have not eased. Furthermore, falling house prices may have a negative impact on household spending. i Capital forecasts Australia’s year-on-year GDP growth rate for 4Q 2018 to be in the range of 2.6 % - 3.5% and for the whole of 2018 to be in the range of 2.8% - 3.1%.

Note from Publisher
The much-awaited talk between president Xi Jinping and Donald Trump at the G-20 Summit in Buenos Aires ended with a tariff truce between the two economic giants. The US stock markets rallied in response. However, the rally was short-lived when the markets realised that there are still many uncertainties in the trade conflict between the two countries. In addition, a section of the US yield curve became inverted for the first time in more than a decade, signaling a potential recession in the US economy.

i Capital has advised subscribers since last year to watch the US yield curve carefully and it has also asked a number times whether the US economy is about to enter into a recession. Although chairman Powell has caved in to Trump’s crude bullying, the threat of the US yield curve fully inverting and a 2019 US recession has not subsided.

Meanwhile, has soft launched a new interactive chart section. Subscribers are encouraged to try out this new exciting feature in Subscribers can conduct their own economic and technical analyses by viewing the charts of their chosen economic indicators or stocks, according to their preferred chart types and time periods. They can also compare multiple economic indicators or stocks across countries and more. Do try it out and let us know what you think.
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