US – Nov ISM Manufacturing Index
03/12/2019 10:40 am MYT
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The ISM manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) in Nov was 48.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the preceding month. This is the fourth consecutive month of contraction – see figure 1. Other than supplier deliveries, the rest of the first 5 key indices contracted in Nov– see table 1. As the trade deal could be derailed by Trump signing the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, the US manufacturing sector is expected to languish for a while longer.

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Note from Publisher
First, it was the signing of the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act into law. As if angering China was not enough, this week, the US Congress passed the Uighur human rights bill, requiring the president to sanction Chinese government officials responsible for supposed human rights abuses against the Uighurs in Xinjiang. With the US lawmakers acting as human rights champion and bashing China in whatever way they can, any chance of improving US-China relations is fast disappearing before it can even begin. Judging by how things are developing, the US is forcing her relations with China to morph into a new Cold War. The US appears to be using the same strategies that she used against the Soviet Union after World War II.

Like the many proxy wars fought between the US and the Soviet Union from the 1950s to the 1980s, US and China are not expected to engage in any direct combat. However, the US is expected to unilaterally attack China in all areas, short of actual military conflict. Until one side shows a clear supremacy over the other, the US-led proxy wars will continue for many years to come and naturally China will respond and retaliate in self-defence. We are likely to see sharp increases in military and research and development spending from both countries. See this week’s China on the Move for more.
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